Monday, October 3, 2011

Plan B

We know the Treasurie is going into debt head long, and we know that means the Federal Reserve is issuing just as many dollars, but the real question is, why are these dollars no being thrown from helicopters.  I know, I know, it sounds ridiculous to think, but this is, after all, Ben Bernanke's solution to a liquidity crunch; they are his words.

He did say in a very famous speech he made right before he became Fed Chairman that if there was a liquidity problem he would "throw dollars from helicopters".  He has been doing it ever sense the Fall of '08, proverbially of course as no dollars have made it onto Main Street.  The real question now is, why is he not throwing dollars at Walled Street like he has since that great Fall?

It looks like the whole financial sector is set to fail, and all the while, corporations like Nordstrom, and Lulumon hold onto their moving averages.  How is it that these corporations can stay solvent when the banks that loan them their money can go out of business?  The answer is somewhat obvious, but my question is, why have these banks put themselves in this situation?

It seems to me that either this was an orchestrated effort to ruin the status quo now, which means the game is up, or these institutions are completely inept.  It is likely a combination of both; let me explain:  Likely, the oilgarchs decided that they needed to enact chaos now so to rebuild the system in their desired image.  The main point of revolution has to do with oil production.  The former swing producer was the House of Saud and their production peaked over a year ago.  Russia is now the swing producer and they peaked in 1989, so that should tell you how much oil they will produce over the next decades.  The North Sea's production fell by 25% the second quarter, which means oil is drying up everywhere.  There will be no growth when oil production has peaked, so the oilgarchs threw in the town.

Now the system will leverage itself off of precious metals dramatically.  The value of fiat will be made to depend on where equities are needed.  Equities are needed to be at certain levels to return pensions.  The status quo will be held onto until the wheels fall off; yet this could be the wheels falling off.  My recommendation is to let go off the status quo, and grab precious metals.  It is the only thing you can rely on.

Where's Bernanke?

The market has been getting pummelled and I have to ask how it is that the President's Working Group on Financial Markets has not come in to support markets, like their mandate states?  I also wonder how it was that the east has been getting the West lower at the open of East trading every time?  So far, the best price to be had on silver came during Asian trading.  Who is in control of this market, and why is Bernanke gun shy?

Could China and other Eastern countries be holding the fiat ponzi hostage?  If Bernanke increased lending would the dollar be dumped?  There is something very big brewing over seas, and apparently Bernanke is at the whim of these motives.  I think something very big is about to happen; it could be a European Explosion, or the dumping of the dollar, but the technical patterns are all running haywire, and with this full capitulation of the system one must wonder, when will the time be up on the fiat ponzi?

State Policy

The dollar just sold off, and silver and gold (especially gold) are trending bullishly on the day.  In the long run it is still a race to the bottom between the dollar and Euro, but with their back up against the wall not only will the policy makers print, but they will lend.

What if they don't?  Then Keynesian policy was wrong all along?  System failure now?  They will print, and lend, because they have no other option.  Will they let the system crash and go to a gold standard now?  No, that is in the cards for after the next election.  They can not have Ron Paul as President, and if they let the system fail again now, that is what will happen.

The oilgarchs want four more years of the status quo, and then they will go to the gold standard.  The still need time to fully implement their Police State.

What does this mean for equities?  Not much.  They may pair their losses in nominal terms, but really, what good is this?

If one cares to preserve their assets then the only real investment, besides investing in self (such as learning a trade) is to own gold/silver/platinum bullion.  These assets define monie by monie in definition.  They hold value in that they last forever, they are a means of an exchange, they are a unit of account as they are fungible, they are a standard of deferred payment because it is a finite resource.

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Occupy Walled Street

The Walled Street has a dubious nature to say the least.  It first came about as a trading post during colonial times.  It then became a fortress of sorts during the revolutionary war, when a wall was built around it to protect the goods.  Over the years it has become a part of the common tongue; known for its better or worst parts, the Walled Street trading post has established itself as one of the most prominent fixtures in human history.

Today this street lies in the middle of turmoil, with people protesting whom are not employed and most important not benefiting from the trading that goes on behind it.  This is a trend that began from afar, for America is the last to adopt the protest scene.  Yet this trend may end with America, as now the whole world has risen in unison to take part in the freedom we know we have.

Media has been borne anew with the death of the corporate ones.  Now people use their own devices to spread the word.  It took time but the resistance has bloomed.  This revolution will not be televised, and it will be interesting to see how long it lasts, and how serious it becomes. 

The status quo is being tested, and the power hungry have few options to quell it.  Police violence will turn the cameras on, and when the world sees that the police which are supposed to serve and protect still take the side of the corporations, it will press against the system harder.  Walled Street has few options to stop the revolution.

One thing to watch for will be to see if Walled Street, at the hand of the Chairman of their Federal Reserve, lets the dollar loose so to raise stock prices.  Bernanke is often criticized for his reliance on stock prices, but this is what the world knows and understands.  Pensions and other investments that the common rely on is the market, and if it is doing well they sleep better.  Bernanke can easily let the dollar depreciate, he is back doing POMOs and he is keeping rates low, and if he does it could well be to quell the uprising.

This will only work in the short term however, because it will increase the price of oil, and it won't take people long to realize that just because their stocks have gone up does not mean they have more wealth in real terms.  But, this is Walled Streets only option.

So look for the dollar to fall.  Hopefully the masses will not buy any nominal gains in stocks and keep the press on the banks.  This movement, 'Occupy Walled Street', could be the straw that breaks the back of the fiat ponzi system.