Sunday, March 13, 2011

Neo Keynesian Gold

Will Japan's earthquake and subsequent nuclear problems affect the price of gold?  You betcha, but maybe not in the very short run.  I will tell you how I have been thinking through this.

First,  going into the close I was not surprised that the Trinity sigma'd into the middle of its range.  Then I thought with it proportioned to move down that Monday would test support, but yes, world events make all the difference, and when but a disaster is a better time to buy precious metal, the monie?

Next, in the long run, I think that nuclear is going to not be the leading way to make energy.  There are too many problems, and besides, its long term EROIE is negative when considering storage costs.  So oil in the short run gets another boost.  Since gold and silver trade with oil, the correlation will send precious metals higher, putting more stress on the dollar, and bonds.  Equities will continue to inflate at the heels of the Four horsemen as the great fiat ponzi collapses around the giant skeleton of culture and society.

Is now the time to go long solar?  If you mean to put a few voltaic  panels on your roof, absolutely.  Maybe the large corporations can facilitate plant production, but more than anything, look for solar to be done best at home. 

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